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How Can Agent-Based Social Simulations Help Identify Operational Risks?

Source: Mash Risk Television

Los Alamos National Laboratory
Dr. Ed MacKerrow, Director

Runtime: 7:26

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MacKerrow is the Director of the Center for the Scientific Analysis of Emerging Threats at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Agent-based social simulations help identify how macro behavior and operational risks emerge from micro-level rules.
  2. The value in agent-based social simulations is developing a more accurate risk model. These simulations are particularly effective in helping organizations understand internal competition and what might happen when entering unknown environments.
  3. Process for developing an agent-based social simulation:
    • Map business processes with agent behaviors
    • Develop a conceptual model
    • Encode the model
    • Run “what if” scenarios
  4. Depending on the size and complexity of the organization, agent-based social simulations can be developed by a two-person internal team in 6-12 months.

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